Weekend Reading

Oh what a week it was in the news, the market on the other hand, ehhh.  We continue to trade in a range between 1113 and 1086 on the S&P 500, now back above the 5 day moving average at the close today.  What’s nice with the chop though is that issues are moving independent of the market, making it much easier to play momentum in either direction.  I’m now short $STT and $RIG, still long $GLD and $UNH.  My positions will continue to stay light into the end of the year.  The US Dollar is breaking its downtrend in a major way, you best be aware.  We are above the 50 day moving average, look for another push up, followed by a retest from above, if it holds the carry trade could be unwound rather quickly in the weeks to come.

In the news!  Tiger’s score card continues to fill up by the hour, how many current or former porn stars is it now?  Look, here’s my take, it’s never right to cheat, but I blame both him and Elin (what a babe) for getting married in the first place, they brought this on each other.  No major celebrity should ever get married in their prime, and no one should ever marry a major celebrity thinking it’ll actually work.  I don’t doubt Tiger loves her, but it’s just not in our DNA as humans to be monogamous, and given the amount of opportunity he has with his status, fagetaboutit.  She may love him as well, but there’s no doubt in my mind she loves the money more.  These sort of things only work when you have two athletes who marry each other (see Laird Hamilton and Gabrielle Reece).  By the way, I have a hamburger bet with @Stein that Tiger and Elin DON’T show up on Oprah together in the next few months.  Look for a lot of Tiger themed porn though.

Obama tried to justify sending 30,000 more troops into the abyss that is Afghanistan in order not to be the president that lost the war.  The administration has no cohesive regional strategy, just the hope that if we sit on the Afghan egg long enough maybe something will hatch.  As you all know I’m no pacifist, there is a proper place for war, even preemptive war, but it must be waged by weighing the risk of loss against the probability of success.  Is Afghanistan Vietnam, NO.  Please put things into perspective people, we’ve lost less than 1/10 the men in both Afghanistan and Iraq combined than we lost in Vietnam.  Is Afghanistan a complete and utter quagmire, you betcha.

Bank of America $BAC repaid the TARP.  I ran into a guy in the locker room at hockey who did the secondary on the capital markets desk at $BAC.  He said the book was mostly filled with guys who already owned large stakes, didn’t want to be diluted, and wanted to support their positions.  I guess the liquidity punch bowl is still not empty.

Everyone hates the banks, what’s new.  Matt Tiebbi is a smart guy, and a good writer might I add, but he makes his living by riding the coat tails of public outrage.  I think you can successfully use his columns to call tops in public outrage at anything.  My guess, after he’s done with Obama he goes for Congress.  The whole thing is a firggin joke.  Look people, I feel like a broken at this point, they gave the banks the money to buy assets and reflate the market.  If they didn’t give them the money, or nationalize the banking system, we were all going to be living on the street.  Yes, Goldman Sachs has made a shit load of money in the past 9 months because they got a piece.  They only got TARP because they had to take it, the treasury forced it on them because they didn’t want to be seen as picking winners and losers by giving some and not others.  The buffet investment wasn’t “needed” either, they took it to calm fears in the market.  Goldman is just playing by the rules of the game, and they are the best at playing it.  Instead of complaining about how much money their bankers and traders make, or that the government financed their trading (which they did), try and investing in their stock, or their funds.  I don’t care how much the average joe schmoe makes, it doesn’t matter, this country is about getting paid your market rate, and the market rate for a guy who can make his firm 100 million dollars in trading profits obviously deserves a percentage of that.  Let the market decided what the percentage is.  I don’t hear anyone complaining about baseball players making bank when the government finances stadiums to hold all those people who contribute to their salaries.

Here is your weekend reading:

How Obama decided to spend more blood and treasury on the quagmire that is Afghanistan (NYT)

More on why you should quit bashing Goldman Sachs and aspire to be one of them (Aiki14)

The mortgage modification program is a complete failure (The Atlantic)

China is winning the race to supply the world with clean energy parts (WSJ)

Turkey wants to take it’s rightful position as power broker in the region, don’t be surprised to see them go after nukes (Economist)

What companies are leading the push for a smarter grid (excellent investment thesis) (Greentech Media)

First person to figure out how to do super cheap desalinization is gonna be a rich and powerful man (Economist)

God bless China for investing in Pakistan, if they won’t send troops to the region, maybe they will help create an economy there (WSJ)

This UStream thing is gonna be huge, HUGE! (CNET)

Media consumption is changing in a dramatic way, so many cool things to come (The Atlantic)

The EPA finally does what’t necessary, calls a spade a spade and labels greenhouse gases a public health threat (WSJ)

Americans are finally starting to pay off the debt binge they went on this decade, good for them, too bad the government is screwed (Business Insider)

The financial transaction tax bill is a complete joke, there is no way it passes, not a chance in hell (WSJ)

The Apple tablet is going to be huge, and it’s coming (Apple Insider)

Consumer credit is still declining, banks know that Americans have no money and will continue to be monster credit risks (Calculated Risk)

  • FM3
    The President has a problem and a yawning capability gap. Check that, we have a problem. He has an elegant intellect but sorely lacks executive decision making power. The status quo needs it's ass kicked, but PO talks/studies matters to death and has no sense of how to make the lonely, right decision for our long term interests.
  • FM3
    1 question PBA should have asked himself before deciding to up the ante in black hole Afganistan: If we were not already there, would we now invade Afganistan ?
  • The answer is no and no and no. But looking at the situation in that manner
    is never an option for anyone in a decision making role, you must work with
    the situation you were given. In bama's case, he was given a crappy war
    with no solution, he feels he is pot committed, and trying to push his
    seemingly large stack of chips around the table like a poker player on tilt.
    Problem is, that stack of chips is far smaller than it appears, and the
    second perception catches up with reality, things are going to get ugly for
    our boys over there.
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