An afternoon rollover, uhhhh, I’m not sure I even know what that looks like anymore. We certainly got it today as the boys over at 85 Broad never fired up the battle bots with the expected volatility after the Fed rate decision (if you really must call it a decision). There is no way in hell that Bernanke and Co. are ready to take away the liquidity punch bowl, hahahahahaha, you think they give a crap about the dollar, such an innocent mind you have. I will continue to press the question, what is the exit strategy guys? For what it’s worth, I figure this grand experiment in reflation is about half way through.

On to the market, as I said we rolled hard this afternoon. It was obvious that the dollar was going to get slaughtered post Fed, I said this much before the decision. This sent the equity markets screaming higher, quickly touching their yearly highs from last week around 108 on the $SPY. I’m not sure why this level was sold hard, but ignoring it would be wrong. Did we put in a double top today, who knows, frankly I don’t care to make that call, it’s not my job.  As equity markets rolled over the dollar strengthened, taking back new yearly highs made in EUR, AUD, and CHF.  We bounced hard at VWAP, but failed, bounced again at S1 which was also the low of the day from the morning, and failed again, ultimately ending the day down close to 1%. Also of note, the 5 day moving average in red is now moving in the negative direction. We haven’t seen this since the first week of the month.

We are on track do do battle with Monday’s gap down low around 105.65, if that is broken the larger level of support is 104.20 which happens to be the location of the 20 day moving average.

Crude took a beating today after the EIA inventory numbers which showed a larger than expected build.  As you know I believe these numbers are first a crock of shit due to the vast amount of crude floating in tankers, and second because the oil market hasn’t traded on fundamentals in quite a long time.  Although the number itself means little, the reaction to it is important.  I think crude is trading in no man’s land here between 75 and 67.  A break in either direction will most likely lead to a more extended move.  The chart of $USL below highlights the trend line that crude had been trading against for quite some time.  It seems that we are starting roll to the downside.

I am still watching copper closely for clues as to where commodities turn next, a rolling top is looking more and more likely there.

By the way, today’s equity puke makes three straight days that the 29 minute hedge fund strategy lost.  My little experiment is now closed with a very small loss.  Does this say something about the structure of the market, has Goldman turned off the bots, who knows, but something to keep an eye on.