Momentum Book Update
An interesting week it was indeed. We came in on Monday to see the market ripping, it was frothy, and everyone knew it. Problem was that few were willing to sell into the strength, myself included, for fear of missing out on a melt up move. I hung on, took some pain, and added a little more on Tuesday afternoon. I didn’t want to, I wanted to see the market puke, but it was evident that wasn’t going to happen. The market trapped the buyers from late in that session on Wednesday morning, found support at Tuesday’s lows and ripped like no tomorrow. The dip buyers came out in force for tech. Thursday felt ominous as we weren’t able to retake Monday’s highs and completed a bearish pattern. I balked at raising cash yesterday afternoon, but should have, and it cost me. Instead of closing out the week with a major win I’m going home having given up some hard fought ground.
$TSL and $CREE got smacked around pretty good today. I bought more $TSL into the fear on Wednesday and then again Thursday, both great entries showing me positive P&L for the day, but adding to my losses as it is now trading below both levels. I still like the trend, and this is the solar leader. Profit taking is a normal, but I will be very quick to cut ties. It closed exactly on the 50 day moving average today, anything below today’s lows and I’m gone with my nice profit. The same goes for $CREE.
$AMZN and $PCLN continue to lag the market as no one is going to be buying these into earnings with the massive run up they saw after the last set. Expectations are high, but I believe will be met and the stocks will once again be bought.
My materials and China exposure really hurt this week, I’m fine with the former, not so with the latter. I believe gold is going higher, but needed a rest, I’ve been posting the chart with my expectation of the price action. We need another month or so before gold $GC_F takes off again, and I’ll continue to build my position in materials.
$V looks great and should break out of its bull flag any day, I’m loaded up there.
I don’t think anyone has enough exposure to healthcare right now, which is why it’s still going higher. I would like to have more, but still feel that we are going to see another leg to the tech rally, so I will keep the major part of my exposure there.
I sold out of $JCG and $GOOG this week as the trend in both is bending. No need to be in $GOOG right now as it is a battle ground stock.
I also cut $GS today, it isn’t acting how I would like into earnings.
I added positions in $APPL and $EVR. How can you not be long $AAPL into the iSlate announcement in two weeks, it’s a game changing product and the chart looks very healthy. I think people come out of the wood work to buy this stock. I’ve traded $EVR in the past and I’ve got a good feel for it, I love the weekly chart and think it’s ready to go again.
I also added a position in $ALGT this week. 40% of the float is short and the pattern looks great. It’s not a high beta name so it gives me some refuge from the market if we do see a broader sell off.
Remember that this overview does not cover my complete activity or every position, just some stuff I’d like to highlight.
I still see so many names I want to own exhibiting great trends. Bearish patterns like the one we are seeing in the indices currently have been broken by the bulls time after time during this rally, I believe that will continue to be the case. Breakout and breakdowns have both failed, we are churning our way to 1200 $SPX, continue to buy the dips and lighten up on the rips whenever things feel too euphoric, I know I did a little to much this week and paid the price.


Leigh Drogen is the founder of Surfview Capital located in New York. Leigh runs a long / short momentum strategy which takes positions across several different asset classes.