Asleep At The Screen
If you’ve been keeping up with this blog on a daily basis the past few weeks, you should have made some pretty good coin on the long side. Last Friday I outlines a laundry list of things that I wanted to see happen to get me bullish and in this market. They were all achieved. On Monday I gave you a whole list of stocks that were ready to run. They ran.
This is great and all to have watch lists and things you’d like to see in terms of market action, but at the end of the day it comes down to execution, pure and simple. I have not executed over the past week, I’ve sat on my hands, staring at the screen while the market has ripped. To be fair, this wasn’t an easy rally to see coming, we’ve gone straight up without consolidation, you either had to be in the momo names on the first day or two or the entries were not there.
The opportunity to make some good money was there, and I’ve just missed it. Today was the first time in about two months that I felt a little fear and frustration on one side or the other, this time obviously on the side of fearing not being in this market. I’ve gotten pretty good at paying attention to my feelings, it’s an extremely important aspect of trading. Anyone who tells you that they can trade emotionless is a liar, we all have emotions, especially when dealing with money. I know that when I start to feel that fear, in either direction, that we are towards the end of the move. The trick is not to get sucked in, and then further, not to bias yourself to that direction once the correction occurs. We will get a correction here, a chance for the longs to step in. Whether that correction turns into a resumption of the downtrend or not I have no clue, but for the momo names I trade, it will be an opportunity to take a shot if the market find support.
It’s funny, everyone has a different time frame that they are good at recognizing trends on. I know certain traders who are excellent at playing the market oscillations on the two to three day time frame, they kill it, getting long as we turn the bottom, short as we turn the top. Their whole market cycle takes place in that 2-3 day period. Mine takes place on the 3-4 week time period. To each his own.
I saw a bunch of names put in doji days at the top of nice runs, they need a rest, I’m very confident that we pull back, but who knows, I missed this run.
Leigh Drogen is the founder of Surfview Capital located in New York. Leigh runs a long / short momentum strategy which takes positions across several different asset classes.